Posts
coauthored with Elle Alexander–
To wrap up Nutrition Awareness Month, here is the second half of this blog post, answering questions 6-10:
- Which sweetener is the best for human health and has minimal environmental impact?
- How can eating behaviors change to support health?
- How have prepared and packaged foods changed in the last decade to promote nutrition?
- Is yogurt a health food?
- How useful are currently serving size recommendation?
- Should energy drinks be marketed to kids?
- Where in the world does our food come from?
- What lessons can we learn from abroad?
- The other, other white meat?
- How have food companies shifted their products to promote healthier options?
6. Should energy drinks be marketed to kids?
The WHO has warned that marketing fast food to kids has been “disastrously effective,†and has ultimately directly contributed to the global obesity epidemic. The American Academy of Pediatric recommends that children and teenagers never consume energy drinks, citing high levels of sugar and caffeine as unhealthy for children while providing no nutritional benefits. In spite of that, Yale University Rudd Center reports that 31% of American youth (age 12-17) consume energy drinks, many of which have on average more sugar than soda and are not required to disclose information on caffeine content.
7. Where in the world does our food come from?
Tracing our food items from production to consumption helps to understand where things really come from. Sourcemap visually displays the journey of products, with some examples having no less than 16 stopovers from source to shelf.
Brazil has introduced new food based countrywide guidelines, now open for comment, to promote health. The rules they propose can be applied to the US and other countries:
- Make foods and freshly prepared dishes and meals the basis of your diet.
- Be sure oils, fats, sugar and salt are used in moderation in culinary preparations.
- Limit the intake of ready-to-consumer products and avoid those that are ultra-processed.
9. The other, other white meat?
Fish are a tremendous source of protein and consumption is growing; to meet the demand in the US means importing 91% of the aquaculture. NOAA address questions about healthy eating and sustainability best practices. Concerns about health, safety and global ecology all come to play when eating fish and equally important is purchasing seafood from reliable sources. Greenpeace ranks retailers based on environmental practices.
10. How have food companies shifted their products to promote healthier options?
Food companies are shifting their portfolios to address the regulatory pressure and consumer interest in healthier items. Smaller portion sizes of classic items can be seen in stores and stealth strategies include product reformulation to reduce sodium or replace refined flour with whole grains, or developing ingredients to increase satiety and flavor without the calories (read more about these trends here). Interestingly, the Hudson Institute found that food and beverage companies with more sales of healthier products were more financially successful than companies with lower sales of healthier items.
When addressing these questions it is essential to consult credible sources, investigate credentials of authors, and recognize source bias.
A few of our current favorite places for nutrition updates are below – or just check back here for future posts on the subject!
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/
http://www.yaleruddcenter.org/
http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/education/medical-school/departments/center-human-nutrition/index.htm
coauthored with Elle Alexander–
March kicks off national nutrition awareness month, a great opportunity to feed our curiosity. With that in mind, we curated some of the top 10 questions around nutrition, and will share five now and five at the end of the month.
- Which sweetener is the best for human health and has minimal environmental impact?
- How can eating behaviors change to support health? Â
- How have prepared and packaged foods changed in the last decade to promote nutrition?
- Is yogurt a health food?
- How useful are currently serving size recommendation?
- Should energy drinks be marketed to kids?
- Where in the world does our food come from?
- What lessons can we learn from abroad?
- The other, other white meat?
- How have food companies shifted their products to promote healthier options?
1. Which sweetener is the best for human health and has minimal environmental impact?
There has been much discussion on high fructose corn syrup vs. cane sugar from health and environmental perspectives. Marion Nestle sheds some light on the debate:
“Sucrose (table sugar) and high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) contain the same sugars—glucose and fructose—and do much the same things in the body.  I think everyone would be better off eating a lot less of either.â€
2. How can eating behaviors change to support health?
When presented with numerous food choices, people tend to pile plates high with calories. Â Choosing smaller plates helps to reduce calorie intake since people tend to stop eating based on visual cues rather than internal satiety cues.
See Brian Wansink’s “Bottomless Soup Bowl†Experiment:
3. How have prepared and packaged foods changed in the last decade to promote nutrition?
In November of 2013, the FDA banned trans-fat, a decision that many – including the Scientific American – considered long overdue and with an impact of saving lives at a minimal cost to industry. Decisions to eat healthier are easier for consumers when information about health and a variety of healthy options are available.
Further work is also needed to reduce sodium intake in the US population, as only 5% of intake is added during cooking and 6% at the table; 75% is from packaged foods. Companies must take the lead to reduce sodium in packaged foods for consumers while ensuring food safety and taste.
4. Is yogurt a health food?
For hundreds of years humans have consumed yogurt across cultures. The protein rich and bacteria filled product has experienced a renaissance of sorts since the 1900s and with the mass popularization of “Greek†yogurts. A New Yorker article in November documented the growth of Chobani; the recipe is modified for consumer enjoyment, including added sweeteners in many products. The benefits of yogurt include probiotics, calcium and a hearty dose of non-animal based protein.
5. How useful are currently serving size recommendation?
According to the CDC, portion sizes have increased, impacting health. There are new devices on the market to help guide consumers toward eating ‘recommended’ quantities, including the Silo which pours 1 cup, 1/2 cup or 1 tsp. There is also a recent proposal to the FDA to make the Nutrition Facts label easier for consumers to understand, highlighting calories, recalibrating serving sizes and including added sugars:
Stay tuned for the next installment at the end of the month. Your thoughts are welcome!
– See more at: http://thevitalityinstitute.org/top-questions-in-nutrition/#sthash.epBr4Uwd.dpuf
Brigadier General Rhonda Cornum is an exceptional woman who advocates for connecting physical and psychological well-being as part of the global ethos for improved health.  The Vitality Institute is honored to count her as one of our Commissioners.
Rhonda’s heroic past, documented in her book, is only a shade more exciting than her work today as a farmer. Rhonda developed a love for farming early in life when she spent her summers on a family farm in Ohio. Today she grows nearly all of her own food in Paris, Kentucky, a practice she considers good for the body and environment. She believes that the closer food is to its natural state, the better it is, “if a product has more than five ingredients, it is not a real food.â€
Agriculture is the single largest employer in the world. Rhonda is one of many female farmers worldwide, but in the minority of female land owners. Women farmers produce more than half of the food grown in the world, yet receive only about 5% of agriculture extension services and own about 2% of land worldwide. Closing the gender gap in agriculture will have economic benefits for world’s economic and food system. S. Ayyappan, Director General of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, said “By failing to invest in women farmers we are handicapping ourselves in the quest for sustainable and more productive agriculture systems and more food-secure societies.†With this global sentiment and individual demonstration of resilience, we celebrate women farmers worldwide and thank them for their efforts in literally putting produce on our plates.
Rhonda considers herself privileged to have her own farm, and in her own words, she tries to be an example of how people can live. Â On a final note, Rhonda offers the two rules that she lives by:
- The fact that you have made a mistake in the past is not a good reason to keep doing it.
- Don’t let other people’s expectations of you limit your own expectations of yourself.
Honoring resilience and inner strength, The Vitality Institute wishes a very happy (belated) International Women’s Day to all.
Change is hard– especially behavior change in a context not designed to support it.  New Year’s resolutions, like those mentioned by Taubes in his New York Times Sunday Review piece, are usually forgotten. It isn’t just that they are ambitious. The problem is that we live in an environment where healthy choices are challenged by increasingly cheap, ubiquitous and tasty treats.
For example, twenty years ago, a typical cheeseburger contained 333 calories, compared to 590 today. According to a new FDA report pizza also accounts for 4% of all calories consumed by American adults daily. Additionally, our lifestyles are more sedentary–average Americans spend nearly nine hours in front of screens.
Source: CDC, “Making Health Easier†(click image to enlarge)
Together, our diet and lack of physical activity put us at risk for lifestyle-related diseases, like hypertension, type-2 diabetes and obesity. Addressing these requires efforts from multiple sectors as health is affected by everything from policies set by governments, to products developed and marketed by companies, and corporate policies impacting employee health. The argument of ‘willpower’ falls away when powerful outside forces act in concert. Â
We are more likely to consume more calories when we eat outside the home. According to the USDA in 2012, more than 40% of meals in America are eaten away from home and 82% of adults eat out at least once a week. Fundamentally changing the foods offered at restaurants can improve the food landscape and promote health. Efforts led by the Culinary Institute of America in partnership with Harvard’s School of Public Health are underway to develop Menus of Change. Consumers want more vegetable options, lean meats, and seafood, and Menus of Change is updating menus to give it to them.
A complementary initiative is Grow Your Family Strong, whose mission is to encourage mindful cooking at home by providing nutritious recipes, shopping lists and most importantly, support from other participants in building healthy meals for their families. Founder Monique Nadeau says “We need practical ideas that are simple to execute, automate and delegate; are value for money, nutritious and include meals our families will enjoy. I’m looking for something that makes my life easier and my family healthier.â€
If making a change is hard, maintaining it is even more challenging. New technology, like Stickk can help individuals make ‘commitment contracts’ to a healthier lifestyle. Participants use the WebApp to publicize their commitments to quit smoking, eat healthier and exercise more frequently and then receive support from an online community. Building a community through health technology is an effective way to achieve personal goals.
Finally, addressing short-termism – where consumers tend to discount the future impacts of their decisions for immediate comfort or pleasure – can be built into polices and private sector commitment to health. For example, there is an opportunity to make healthier foods more affordable and accessible at point of sale. A few pilot programs, including Healthy Food Here, are making it easier (and cost effective) for retailers to provide fresh produce. Resolving to eat well and a landscape of support go together like (low-fat) milk and (wholegrain) cookies.
In President Obama’s State of the Union address earlier this week, he commended the First Lady’s efforts to get Americans, and particularly children, moving. The Let’s Move campaign combines getting active with healthy eating and is a great example of partnerships between the US government, NGOs, and industry.  Additional collaborations are needed to promote healthy eating in federally supported programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The Farm Bill was omitted from Tuesday night’s address despite being a key to the future of agriculture, food and health in America.
Graph (click to enlarge) created by Brad Plumer, The Washington Post, January 28, 2014.
The majority of spending of the Farm Bill – nearly 80%, or $756 billion – is allocated to support nutrition and food security for low income Americans (see graph), although the funding does not explicitly support healthy eating or nutrition for recipients.  Improving the SNAP programs is an occasion for the US government to codify the link between agriculture production and healthy food consumption.
Importantly, shifts in diets could reduce the burden of disease and chronic disability which now account for nearly half of the US health burden. Improving availability of fresh fruits and vegetables can help replace high-calorie, highly processed foods with less energy intensive production. It is also important to understand the relationship – or lack thereof – between subsidies and crop insurance support and retail costs of the healthiest foods
Land use for farming is not currently driven by health indicators. Harvard School of Public Health calculates that it required about 40 acres of farmland to produce 1,000 kilograms (approx. 2,200 pounds)  of ground beef while only 3/4 of an acre to produce the same quantity of potatoes and even less — 1/16 of an acre to grow 1,000 kilograms of carrots. The Farm Bill should support the production of more sustainable protein sources over energy intensive meat production. Further, by subsidizing fruits and vegetables instead of grain, corn and soy used predominantly for animal feed, the Farm Bill can be an effective lever to reduce the quantity of highly processed foods going to market and concurrently reduce the ecological footprint of the food system.
There is a tremendous opportunity to improve SNAP to help guide healthier food decisions.  Additionally, bolstering Michelle Obama’s efforts for healthier children, SNAP-Ed can complement the national Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Program helping children form healthy habits early in life. The road ahead to reforming SNAP and revising the Farm Bill may by rocky, but shifts to promote health will benefit all and result from businesses, government, and local organizations supporting healthy and cost effective food choices promoting health. Let’s get moving on this together.
HarÂmoÂnizÂing the Rules of BusiÂness with the Laws of Nature
EnviÂronÂmenÂtal Debt: The HidÂden Costs of a ChangÂing Global EconÂomy, writÂten by Amy Larkin and researched by Johanna GoetÂzel, was released by PalÂgrave MacmilÂlan June 25, 2013.
The book conÂnects the finanÂcial and enviÂronÂmenÂtal crises – through both causes and soluÂtions. The book introÂduces the “Nature Means BusiÂness FrameÂwork for the 21st CenÂtury,†which proÂvides a road map for conÂnectÂing the Return On InvestÂment (ROI) of busiÂness with the surÂvival of the natÂural world.
The three pilÂlars of the The Nature Means BusiÂness FrameÂwork aim to empower profÂitable busiÂness that, by nature, coexÂist with the enviÂronÂment. They are as follows:
(1) PolÂluÂtion can no longer be free and can no longer be subsidized
(2) The long view must guide all decision-making and accounting
(3) GovÂernÂment plays a vital role in catÂalyzÂing clean techÂnolÂogy and growth while preÂventÂing enviÂronÂmenÂtal destruction.
Larkin’s “greatÂest hope is that EnviÂronÂmenÂtal Debt proÂmulÂgates new ideas into the culÂture that in turn change our underÂstandÂing of busiÂness.†The book reveals the comÂmon ground between busiÂness, civil sociÂety, sciÂence, reliÂgion, culÂture and  polÂicy reformÂers. The ideas preÂsented in the book take on extended life through an online forum called The TranÂsiÂtion Agenda, hosted by RESOLVE, where indiÂvidÂuÂals from a variÂety of secÂtors can disÂcuss and engage with issues essenÂtial to our surÂvival. No nature, no business.
Reviews of the book have been encourÂagÂing. PubÂlishÂers Weekly writes: “For anyÂone interÂested in enviÂronÂmenÂtal and ecoÂnomic polÂicy, this is a fasÂciÂnatÂing, provocaÂtive book. Brisk, bold, and blunt, Larkin is a devÂasÂtatÂing critic of curÂrent busiÂness pracÂtices, but she wants to inspire, not scold.â€
A New York native, Larkin writes about local and global issues in a clear and direct way.  Her years of work with GreenÂpeace along with her entreÂpreÂneurÂial expeÂriÂence present the short and long term impacts of enviÂronÂmenÂtal debt. The tone is encouraging–action is posÂsiÂble, and the time is now!
Amy Larkin blogs for the HuffÂinÂgÂton Post about these and other issues.
coauthored with Jody Dean–
The Bloomberg adminÂisÂtraÂtion is comÂing to a close and the search for a new mayor is in full swing. In addiÂtion to the usual polÂicy quesÂtions typÂiÂcally raised durÂing a mayÂoral race, the 2013 canÂdiÂdates were offered an unpreceÂdented opporÂtuÂnity to outÂline their platÂforms on food policy.
The need for more resilient and susÂtainÂable food polÂicy and infraÂstrucÂture for New York is well docÂuÂmented, and is the subÂject of a numÂber of food sysÂtems and anti-hunger orgaÂniÂzaÂtions. SpearÂheaded by the BrookÂlyn Food CoaliÂtion, the groundÂbreakÂing “MayÂoral canÂdiÂdate forum on the future of food in New York City†was conÂvened to engage the canÂdiÂdates in a disÂcusÂsion about food polÂicy as an “ecoÂnomic, health, enviÂronÂmenÂtal and labor iniÂtiaÂtive.†Through this forum, the pubÂlic and over 1,000 attenÂdees were able to hear the posiÂtion of each mayÂoral canÂdiÂdate on issues related to food polÂicy, food access, and the future of food in New York. These topÂics, while essenÂtial to the health and staÂbilÂity of the city, are freÂquently left out of mayÂoral debates or tied in with other issues, such as education.
Of the nine declared canÂdiÂdates, six attended the forum, modÂerÂated by MarÂion NesÂtle, ProÂfesÂsor in the DepartÂment of NutriÂtion, Food StudÂies, and PubÂlic Health at New York UniÂverÂsity. The quesÂtions posed to the canÂdiÂdates fall under three banÂners: healthy and susÂtainÂable food for schools, expandÂing access to serÂvices and aid proÂgrams (SNAP and WIC) and labor issues within the indusÂtry. The conÂverÂsaÂtion included a disÂcusÂsion about how best to inteÂgrate a food polÂicy platform.
Hunger is a comÂplex probÂlem and it is essenÂtial that it is addressed on mulÂtiÂple levÂels. Food availÂabilÂity, one imporÂtant piece of comÂbatÂting hunger, is an issue that impacts the entire ecoÂnomic and social sysÂtem. Food access and utiÂlizaÂtions are facÂtors cenÂtral to strengthÂenÂing the links between food, comÂmuÂnity, health and ecoÂnomÂics under the purview of the mayor. CanÂdiÂdates must think about the underÂlyÂing facÂtors includÂing socio-economic staÂtus that limit food accesÂsiÂbilÂity, availÂabilÂity of resources, and alloÂcate more fundÂing for social safety nets.
AccordÂing to FeedÂing AmerÂica, 2011 cenÂsus data shows that the State of New York is 14.7% food inseÂcure. Rate of food inseÂcuÂrity are higher, on averÂage, in the five borÂoughs: in Queens, 14% of  the popÂuÂlaÂtion is food inseÂcure.  In ManÂhatÂtan (Kings county) 20.4% and in Bronx, 23.3%.
All parÂticÂiÂpatÂing canÂdiÂdates spoke about the SNAP proÂgram and noted the overÂall posÂiÂtive impact for parÂticÂiÂpants, though canÂdiÂdate John CasÂtiÂmaÂtidis menÂtioned that he preÂferred the WIC proÂgram, which he believed was less prone to fraud.
SugÂgesÂtions to improve SNAP in the folÂlowÂing ways were discussed:
1. DesÂtigÂmaÂtize assisted food aid programs
2. Extend free meals  through the sumÂmer and maxÂiÂmize parÂticÂiÂpaÂtion (a posiÂtion advoÂcated for by the Food Bank of New York)
3. Offer more opporÂtuÂniÂties for enrollÂment (and locations)
4. Increase the numÂber of venÂdors who can process SNAP (improve techÂnolÂogy in stores and bodegas)
Another area ripe for expanÂsion is increased partÂnerÂships with farmÂers marÂkets and CSAs to proÂmote conÂsumpÂtion of fresh and seaÂsonal fruits and vegÂetaÂbles.  FurÂther, proÂgrams like the DouÂble Up Food Bucks (DUFB) proÂgram that matches money spent by SNAP parÂticÂiÂpants up to $20 per transÂacÂtion for the purÂchase of state-grown proÂduce. The proÂgram, already in place in MichiÂgan, could be impleÂmented in New York stores and farmÂers marÂkets. Many green marÂkets already accept EBT in New York and perÂhaps green carts can also be outÂfitÂted with the techÂnolÂogy to do so.
SevÂeral canÂdiÂdates, includÂing Anthony Weiner and Bill De BlaÂsio, spoke of appointÂing food czars or deputy direcÂtors of food proÂgrams who work cross-sectorally to develop proÂgrams and then partÂner with local groups like JustÂfood to monÂiÂtor and evalÂuÂate progress.
The food serÂvice indusÂtry is an essenÂtial piece of the food econÂomy in New York and as such, the milÂlions of parÂticÂiÂpants must be respected and proÂtected to ensure safety of food and workÂers and fosÂter an incluÂsive comÂmuÂnity where food brings us together instead of magÂniÂfies the socioeÂcoÂnomic divide. AÂ large porÂtion of the food serÂvice popÂuÂlaÂtion canÂnot curÂrently afford sufÂfiÂcient food for themÂselves or families.
Those seekÂing to improve the wages and wellÂbeÂing of food workÂers must also acknowlÂedge that a large proÂporÂtion of food-service workÂers comÂmute long disÂtances to work. The Gothamist illusÂtrates this fact with a map with cenÂsus data to show just how long comÂmutes to jobs in the City are for many workÂers. They reported that in ManÂhatÂtan, twice as many workÂers comÂmute from another county (1.6 milÂlion) as live there (830,000). Time spent in tranÂsit is time lost for wage earnÂings. The ecoÂnomÂiÂcally stratÂiÂfied city means that there are a very few peoÂple who work where they live.
CanÂdiÂdates spoke of real estate changes that could help reduce the proÂporÂtion of sales that go toward rent (John CatÂsiÂmaÂtidis said that in New York it is close to 10 perÂcent while in New JerÂsey it is merely 1.5 perÂcent). ChangÂing this by increasÂing 80–20 housÂing and mixed use real estate could radÂiÂcally change the goods and serÂvices econÂomy. Other interÂvenÂtions includÂing the folÂlowÂing can help in the short term:
1. Increase the minÂiÂmum wage. The GenÂeral IndusÂtry MinÂiÂmum Wage Act has set a $7.25 wage in many states, includÂing New York. AccordÂing to canÂdiÂdate Sal Albanese, that is not livÂable wage.
2. Hire locally when posÂsiÂble, develop neighÂborÂhood economies to supÂport food systems.
3. Increase eduÂcaÂtional opporÂtuÂniÂties for indusÂtry workers.
While a food polÂicy platÂform was ostenÂsiÂbly the focus on the forum, not all of the canÂdiÂdates address this issue directly within their camÂpaigns. Rather than answerÂing the quesÂtions about hunger, school food and the food econÂomy, many instead rolled these issues into other secÂtors of their camÂpaign platÂforms, such as disÂpleaÂsure with Mayor Bloomberg’s polÂicy iniÂtiaÂtives or reducÂing the amount of money spent on healthcare.
This seems to indiÂcate that despite the focus on food sysÂtems proÂvided by the forum, the future of food in New York City may not yet be at the foreÂfront of the city’s politÂiÂcal conÂsciousÂness.  HisÂtorÂiÂcally, the work around these issues has been carÂried by non-profits and comÂmuÂnity groups, and that trend is likely to conÂtinue until city govÂernÂment embraces the idea of develÂopÂing a more susÂtainÂable and resilient food system.
On sevÂeral occaÂsions the canÂdiÂdates spoke of the need for colÂlabÂoÂraÂtion between govÂernÂment, busiÂness and civil sociÂety. Food sysÂtem govÂerÂnance effiÂciency can be increased through havÂing an open colÂlabÂoÂraÂtion. Some canÂdiÂdates spoke from perÂsonal expeÂriÂence, includÂing John CatÂsiÂmaÂtidis, who is the owner of GristÂedes, about the advanÂtages of larger stores and chains. OthÂers advoÂcated for bodeÂgas and fresh carts to receive greater subÂsiÂdies and sup​port​.In all cases, it is imporÂtant to supÂport the equiÂtable operÂaÂtions of  a comÂbiÂnaÂtion of small marÂkets (and incuÂbaÂtor spaces, like  La MarÂqueta  menÂtioned by ChrisÂtine Quinn) and larger chains where supÂply chains are clearly stated (i.e. Whole Foods).
StrateÂgies for buildÂing a more inteÂgrated and resilient food sysÂtems will likely emerge when canÂdiÂdates are pushed and held accountÂable. MarÂion NesÂtle noted her “astonÂishÂment†that food was a takÂing a priÂmary focus in the race, howÂever there is still a lot of work to be done in addressÂing the underÂlyÂing issues of access, healthÂfulÂness and expandÂing SNAP and WIC. The forum was a great occaÂsion for diaÂlogue. More opporÂtuÂniÂties for disÂcusÂsion about food econÂomy, ecolÂogy, and politÂiÂcal sysÂtems are essenÂtial for New York’s susÂtained health.
Links to each candidate’s camÂpaign issues are available:
coauthored with Jody Dean–
[Over comÂing weeks, the staff of City Atlas will be preÂsentÂing sumÂmaries, analyÂsis, and pubÂlic feedÂback on the city’s monÂuÂmenÂtalSIRR report about rebuildÂing and resilience, which includes lessons learned from HurÂriÂcane Sandy and plans for the city in the face of new chalÂlenges from a changÂing climate.]
The cliÂmate analyÂsis secÂtion includes this photo, a reminder that NYC has flooded in the past. (Photo NYT)
Extreme events often prompt quesÂtions that begin with “why?â€Â Why now? Why me? Why here? Due to the chaotic nature of the cliÂmate sysÂtem, there is no simÂple answer to these quesÂtions. Part of the answer, though, can be found by examÂinÂing past cliÂmate trends and proÂjecÂtions for the future. Extreme events like Sandy cause huge impacts, the most jarÂring being the loss of lives and the disÂplaceÂment of peoÂple from their homes. There are also masÂsive monÂeÂtary costs assoÂciÂated with rebuildÂing. We will all bear the burÂden of these costs, through taxes and resource reallocation.
The SpeÂcial IniÂtiaÂtive for RebuildÂing and Resiliency (SIRR) report offers tarÂgeted sugÂgesÂtions for polÂiÂcyÂmakÂers regardÂing the develÂopÂment of more resilient sysÂtems for New York, in order to make the impacts of extreme events and cliÂmate change manÂageÂable rather than catastrophic.
In time and with the increased politÂiÂcal gravÂiÂtas delivÂered by this extenÂsive report and ongoÂing disÂcusÂsion around it, the conÂverÂsaÂtion can shift from “why did this hapÂpen to us?†to “how can we adapt and rebuild responÂsiÂblyâ€? This refoÂcused quesÂtion allows us to move forÂward and is made posÂsiÂble by underÂstandÂing the chronic hazÂards faced by the city and the potenÂtial impacts of extreme events, whose freÂquency and severÂity are likely to increase with the changÂing climate.
The full report includes a cliÂmate analyÂsis secÂtion (hi res pdf) that docÂuÂments the impact of hisÂtoric extreme weather events and proÂvides a conÂtext for future cliÂmate sceÂnarÂios, along with the proÂjected costs. The SIRR utiÂlizes cliÂmate modÂels develÂoped for the forthÂcomÂing InterÂgovÂernÂmenÂtal Panel on CliÂmate Change Fifth AssessÂment Report (IPCC AR5). The AR5 conÂcludes that “long-term changes in cliÂmate mean that when extreme weather events strike, they are likely to be increasÂingly severe and damÂagÂing.†Despite the extreme and hisÂtoric nature of the event, Sandy was not the first storm to cause sigÂnifÂiÂcant damÂage. The timeÂline below illusÂtrates other coastal storm events with major impacts on New York City. As with Sandy, the effects of these storms were expeÂriÂenced all along the EastÂern Seaboard.
The vulÂnerÂaÂbilÂity of the city to coastal storms is nothÂing new, but as preÂviÂously noted, cliÂmate change will exacÂerÂbate the sitÂuÂaÂtion by worsÂenÂing extreme events and chronic conÂdiÂtions. As indiÂcated in the IPCC AR5, over the past cenÂtury sea levÂels in New York City have risen over a foot, while simulÂtaÂneÂously temÂperÂaÂtures are increasÂing. The sciÂenÂtific conÂsenÂsus is that these trends will accelÂerÂate and this is highÂlighted in the New York City Panel on CliÂmate Change (NPCC) 2013 cliÂmate proÂjecÂtions, which were included in the SIRR report.
Source: NPCC
In addiÂtion to these chronic hazÂards, another vulÂnerÂaÂbilÂity highÂlighted in the SIRR is the city’s use of outÂdated Flood InsurÂance Rate Maps (FIRM’s), which show the perÂcentÂage of land that lies within the so-called “100-year†and “500-year†floodÂplains. At the time that Sandy hit, the FIRM’s had not been updated since 1983, though in 2007 the City forÂmally requested that FEMA update the maps to include the last 30 years of data. The lack of updated maps left the city with an inacÂcuÂrate view of the perÂcentÂage of land at risk for floodÂing and the areas that flooded durÂing Sandy were sevÂeral times larger than the floodÂplains outÂlined in the 1983 FIRM’s. The SIRR emphaÂsized the imporÂtance of regÂuÂlarly updated maps to assist with adapÂtaÂtion and mitÂiÂgaÂtion strateÂgies for coastal flooding.
The cliÂmate analyÂsis secÂtion also explained the freÂquently misÂunÂderÂstood clasÂsiÂfiÂcaÂtion of a “100-year†or “500-year†event. ClasÂsiÂfyÂing an area as part of a “100-year floodÂplainâ€Â indiÂcates that there is a 1 perÂcent chance of a flood occurÂring in the area in a given year and that expeÂriÂencÂing a 100-year flood does not decrease the chance of a secÂond 100-year flood occurÂring that same year or any year that folÂlows. FolÂlowÂing these calÂcuÂlaÂtions, Klaus Jacob writes in the June issue of SciÂenÂtific AmerÂiÂcan that, “the chance of what had been a one-in-100-year storm surge occurÂring in New York City will be one in 50 durÂing any year in the 2020s, one in 15 durÂing the 2050s and one in two by the 2080s.†The city is now workÂing again with the NPCC to develop more accuÂrate “future flood maps†to assist with the rebuildÂing, planÂning and adapÂtaÂtion efforts.
The cliÂmate analyÂsis secÂtion conÂcludes with speÂcific, forward-looking iniÂtiaÂtives for planÂning along New York City’s 520 miles of coastÂline, includÂing a netÂwork of floodÂwalls, levÂees and bulkÂheads to proÂtect buildÂings and inhabÂiÂtants. More than encourÂagÂing “emerÂgency preÂparedÂness,†longer-term sceÂnario planÂning will be necÂesÂsary in order to adeÂquately safeÂguard New York and its growÂing popÂuÂlaÂtion. FurÂther, cliÂmate projects need to be regÂuÂlarly updated in order to adeÂquately inform deciÂsion making.
AdvoÂcatÂing that we “plan ambiÂtiously,†the SIRR report sugÂgests that mitÂiÂgaÂtion efforts require buy-in from polÂicy makÂers, planÂners and insurÂers and civil sociÂety. CynÂthia RosenÂzweig, NPCC co-chair, makes the salient point that adapÂtaÂtion plans canÂnot sucÂceed “withÂout takÂing the voices of neighÂborÂhoods into account.†In order to best address quesÂtions of “why me,†vulÂnerÂaÂbilÂity must be anaÂlyzed at mulÂtiÂple levÂels and the resultÂing plans backed by finanÂcial investÂment for addressÂing the conÂtinÂued threat of cliÂmate change. Above all, the SIRR report emphaÂsizes that buildÂing capacÂity for resilience requires accuÂrate data to assess the potenÂtial impacts and the tools and finanÂcial resources availÂable to impleÂment solutions.
The full report can be found here, and is a marÂvel of lucid explaÂnaÂtion: it’s a self-contained, benchÂmark work that inteÂgrates cliÂmate and urban planÂning for the most popÂuÂlous city in the world’s largest economy.
AddiÂtional Reading:
–Coastal subÂsiÂdence also plays a role in NYC coastal vulÂnerÂaÂbilÂity. ProÂvidÂing hisÂtorÂiÂcal analyÂsis and vivid maps, Mark Fischetti’s SciÂenÂtific AmerÂiÂcan artiÂcle explains how North AmerÂiÂcan glacÂier retreat began over 20,000 years ago and litÂtle by litÂtle, has resulted in the eastÂern U.S. landÂmass sinkÂing as the crust adjusts to the unloading.
–The quesÂtion of whether or not rebuildÂing after natÂural disÂasÂter has been hotly debated since Sandy. Tom AshÂbrook tackÂled this quesÂtion in a FebÂruÂary 2013 On Point PodÂcast.
– Our interÂview with Klaus Jacob, who also raises the quesÂtion of rebuildÂing in areas that will become increasÂingly endanÂgered over time.
I’m excited that you’re here!
I encourage you to look around, make suggestions and by all means contribute. I plan to share my musing on how our actions effect the natural world and examine leverage points for change.
My blog is called “Johanna’s Hot Spots” and it is about climate change, your life and other things that get me hot and bothered.
Thank you.