America’s secret commodities crunch – Fortune Finance

The commodities crunch is corporate America's dirty little secret. Even as consumers open their wallets once again and sales volume improves, inflationary pressure is creeping in. It's hitting companies small and large. And even giant corporations with plenty of heft to negotiate the best possible rates from suppliers are feeling the pinch. Procter & Gamble's (PG) chief financial officer, Jon Moeller, told us on Squawk Box that the consumer-products giant saw a 160-basis-point impact from higher input costs late last year. For now, P&G has offset that rise with its productivity and cost-saving programs.

Not that investors have noticed: Thomson Reuters has analysts forecasting a 13.4% climb in corporate profits in 2011.) "Either the revenue picture will start increasing more rapidly over the next few quarters, and that will offset higher costs, or profits will get hit," says Ashwani Kaul, head of his own investment advisory firm. "Something has to give."